Vaccines have been successful in preventing disease, but according to Kalorama Information that doesn’t mean they will hurt the market for products to test for those diseases. The healthcare market research publisher says a variety of factors will boost the infectious disease IVD market, even if vaccines are developed and widely distributed. The world market for infectious disease tests is estimated at $14.5 billion in 2012 and with 5% CAGR will reach $18.3 billion in 2017, according to their latest report The World Market for Infectious Disease Diagnostic Tests.
“One would expect that the eventual impact of a successful vaccine strategy would be the complete eradication of the disease and therefore little or no use for a diagnostic test for that particular disease,” said Shara Rosen, Kalorama analyst and the author of the report. “However, in light of the recent re-emergence of tuberculosis, measles and malaria; and the persistence of polio, it is unrealistic to think that a disease could be totally eliminated around the world at the same time. “
The report notes that pathogens constantly change their genetic make-up, which challenges the development of vaccines against infectious diseases. This genetic flexibility allows many infectious agents to mutate or evolve into more deadly strains against which humans have little or no resistance: the HIV and influenza viruses, for example, constantly mutate and recombine to find their way through the host defense mechanisms.
Further, the report notes that the vaccine market may not be strong enough to encourage enough entrants for all the possible infectious diseases. Even existing vaccine markets sometimes fail.
After the flu epidemic scare of 2009 resulted in a shortage of flu vaccines, the industry prepared to avoid this in the future. But things did not quite work out for them. In 2012, companies produced about 145 million doses and only about 129 million were distributed. In 2011, companies lost even more on the flu vaccine because it was such a light flu season and fewer people decided to get the shot.
“These diseases can be unpredictable and so companies have cautiously entered the market,” Rosen said.
For these reasons, Kalorama’s report says the traditional testing and treatment model will play a long-term role in combating the scourge of infectious disease.
The report, The World Market for Infectious Disease Diagnostic Tests, has more information on the impact of vaccines on testing, and other trends. The report also has complete market estimates and forecasts. The report can be found at: http://www.kaloramainformation.com/Infectious-Disease-Diagnostic-7841652/.
